Thomas Robert Malthus - Principle Of Population
(An attempt to reconstruct Malthus' core argument using critical thinking)

Introduction

Over my years of working on this Exponentialist web site my views on Malthus' Principle of Population have evolved, and continue to evolve. At times, I have to stop and remind myself what Malthus actually said. It seems to me that everyone who has read Malthus' essay (any edition), and many who have only read about Malthus' essay, have formed some very firm opinions. I am no different in this regard, except that I endeavour to re-read and re-consider Malthus' arguments from time to time.

In re-reading Malthus' essay (1st edition), I have decided to try and reconstruct Malthus' core argument  - the Principle Of Population - using the principles and skills of critical thinking. This argument is largely contained in Chapters I to VII. By focussing on just the core argument I will be deliberately ignoring much of Malthus' attempts to refute the arguments of "...Mr Godwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers" (to whom the essay is addressed) on the perfectibility of Man (Chapters VIII to XV). Furthermore, I will be deliberately ignoring Malthus' views on the relationship between state wealth and individual poverty (Chapters XVI and XVII). I will also ignore Malthus' attempt at Natural Theology in the last two chapters of the essay, as these are a matter of Malthus' personal religious views and do not add anything to the core argument of the Principle Of Population itself.

I will then refine this reconstruction of Malthus' argument based on the 6th edition of his essay. Then I will reconstruct Malthus' argument based on Malthus' last words on the subject in 1830, A Summary View. Finally, I will reconstruct a composite form of Malthus' argument in my own words in order to both clarify my own understanding of Malthus' argument and to bring the terminology used into the modern day.

Note that I will not include a critical analysis of the Principle Of Population  in this article, just the reconstruction of the argument. I will use the principle of charity (from critical thinking) to present Malthus' argument as fairly and neutrally as possible. I will also try to capture Malthus' argument as concisely as possible, roughly in the order that it was presented.

Principle Of Population (1st edition - 1798) - In Malthus' Own Words

General outline

"I have thus sketched the general outline of the argument..." (p.72)

C 1 - The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in earth to produce subsistence for man. (p.71)

P1 - "...fixed laws of our nature..." (p.70)

P1.1 - That Food is necessary to the existence of man.

P1.2 - That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state

P2 - A slight acquaintance with numbers will shew the immensity of the first power [geometric]  in comparison to the second [arithmetic] (p.71)

P2.1 - Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.

P2.2 - Subsistence increases only in an arithmetic ratio.

C2 - This difficulty  [subsistence] must fall somewhere and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind (p.71)

P3 - This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence (p.71)

P3.1 - The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. (p.71) [see P2.1 and P2.2]

P3.1.1 - By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man. (p.71) [see P1.1]

Particular examination of the argument

"...but I will examine it more particularly..." (p.72)

C3 - I said that population, when unchecked, increased in geometrical ratio, and subsistence for man in an arithmetical ratio (p.73)

P4 - This ratio of increase [P5], though short of the utmost power of population, we will take as our rule...population, when unchecked,
        goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years or increases in geometrical ratio." (p.74) [refinement of P2.1]

P4.1 - In no state that we have  known has the power of population been left to exert itself with perfect freedom. (p.72)

P4.2 - In the United States ...the population has been found to double itself in twenty-five years (p.74)

P5 - It may be fairly said, therefore, that the means of subsistence increase in arithmetical ratio (p.74)

P5.1 - Let us take as this for our rule, though far beyond the truth, and allow that, by great exertion, the whole produce of this Island [Britain]
        might be increased every twenty-five years, by a quantity equal to what it at present [in 1798] produces (p.74)

P5.2 - The most enthusiastic spectator cannot suppose a greater increase than this. (p.74)

P6 - Let us now bring these two ratios together (p.74)

P6.1 - At the conclusion of the first century the population [of Britain] would be one hundred and twelve millions and
        the means of subsistence only equal to thirty-five millions. (p.75)

P6.1.1 [Population: Start at 7million  ==> 14==> 28==>56 ==> 112]

P6.1.2 [Means of subsistence: Start at 7 million ==> 14 ==> 21 ==> 28 ==> 35]

P6.2 - Taking the whole of the world at any number, a thousand millions, for instance would increase [every 25 years] in the ratio of
        ...in three centuries as 4096 to 13 (p.75)

P6.2.1 [Population] 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 etc.

P6.2.2 [Means of subsistence] 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 etc

P7 - ...the increase of the human species can only be kept commensurate to the increase of the means of subsistence... (p.76)

P7.1 - Among plants and animals the subject is simple

P7.1.1 - They are impelled by a powerful instinct to the increase of their species

P7.1.2 - ...this instinct is interrupted by no reasoning or doubts about providing for their offspring

P7.2 - The effects of this check on man are more complicated

P7.2.1 Impelled to the increase of his species by an equally powerful instinct...

P7.2.2 ...reason interrupts is career and asks him whether he may not bring beings into the world for whom
            he cannot provide the means of subsistence.

C4 - ..."...the superior power of population is repressed, and the actual population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice."  (p.118)

P7 - ...no possible form of society could prevent the almost constant action of misery upon the great part of mankind...(p.79)

P8 - That population cannot increase without the means of subsistence... (p.79)

P8.1 - ...is a proposition so evident that it needs no illustration. (p.79)

P9 - That population does invariably increase where when the means of subsistence increase... (p.119)

P9.1 - ...the history of every people that have ever existed will abundantly prove. (p.79)

P10 - Let us examine the different states in which mankind have been known to exist (p.80)

P10.1 - The savage or hunter state (pp 81-85)

P10.1.1 - ...their population is thin from scarcity of food, that it would immediately increase
                if food was in greater plenty

P10.2 - The shepherd state, or the tribes of barbarians that overran the Roman Empire (pp 81-85)

P10.2.1 - The cause of the great tide of Northern Emigration

P10.2.1.1 - Among these bold and improvident Barbarians, population was probably but little checked,
                as in modern states, from fear of future difficulties.

P10.2.1.2 - ...as fast as some were mowed down by the scythe of war or of famine,
                    others rose in increased numbers to supply their place

P10.3 - State of civilized nations (pp.86-92)

P10.3.1 - Slow increase of population at present in most of the states of Europe

P10.3.1.1 - ...the distresses they [the poor] suffer from want of proper and sufficient food, from hard labour
                    and unwholesome habitations, must operate a constant check to incipient populations (p.102)

P10.3.2 - ...the greater part of Europe is more populous now than it was in former times...

P10.3.2.1 - ...the industry of the inhabitants produce a greater quantity of human subsistence.

P10.3.2 - It certainly seems very little probable that the population of China is fast increasing

P10.4 - New colonies [in North and South America]- reasons for their rapid increase (pp104-108)

P10.4.1 - "...plenty of good land..." (p.105)

P10.4.2 "...a greater degree of liberty and equality [USA only]

P10.5 - ...that population constantly bears a regular proportion to food that the earth is made to produce. (p.87)

P11 - The only true criterion of a real and permanent increase in the population of any country is an increase of the means of subsistence (p.115)

P11.1 - The average proportion of births to burials for any country for a period of five to ten years,
            will hence appear to be an inadequate criterion of the real average increase of population (p.112)

P11.1.1 [examination of mortality tables, Chapter VII]

P12 - The vices of man are able ministers of depopulation...and often finish the dreadful work for themselves (p.118)

P13 - ...sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague, advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands (pp.118-119) [misery]

P14 - ...gigantic, inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population... (p.118) [misery]

Principle Of Population (6th edition - 1826) - In Malthus' Own Words

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A Summary View (1830) - In Malthus' Own Words

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Principle Of Population - In My Words

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Conclusion

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Copyright © 2001 David A. Coutts

Last modified: 05 September, 2008