HOME » | FORUM | CONTACT |

.: Technology Bytes : MixDown Edition
2004 In Review - The Road Ahead:


February 01 2005:

Welcome Back !

2004 was definitely a roller coaster ride in regards to Computer Technology. We covered quite a lot of ground from the peaking of the existing technologies which led to the realization that the quest for performance in megahertz alone was no longer a viable endeavor, to the failed promises from both Intel and Apple to deliver over hyped milestones, to the slow uptake of emerging technologies such as PCIe, DDR2 and the expected 64 bit wave.

Back in April I covered the “End of the Megahertz Myth” when in an unprecedented move, Intel finally conceded that performance could no longer be judged by megahertz alone, and in doing so, shifted their focus away from marketing their CPU’s on clock speed , and introduced new model numbering system that effectively eliminated raw clock speeds from its product names.

This was a hint at what was to come as it was becoming blatantly obvious that due to the constraints being experienced due to the heat dissipation problems of the new .09 Prescott PIV’s, the expected scalability of the chip was greatly flawed. This eventually resulted in not only the Tejas Project ( The scheduled next generation Netburst chip) being scrapped, but also even more embarrassingly for Intel , the realization that the Prescott with all of its new technologies would fail to reach the much hyped 4.0 GHz milestone.

Apple also had their share of problems with the transition to .09 Micron, with the IBM built 970 also suffering major heat dissipation problems, resulting in the scalability basically stopping dead from its initial launch. They did manage to squeeze a new Dual 2.5 System onto the market, ( which is nothing more than an overclocked 2.0 chip ). To keep the thermals in check, they needed to take the extreme step of water cooling the chips, but in their usual brilliant marketing spin, they managed to use the Jedi Mind Trick to convince the punters that it was actually a cool new innovation, instead of an extreme measure to compensate for the overclock. :-) It wasn’t surprising that the much over hyped 3.0 GHz chip that Steve Jobs proudly boasted would eventuate, has mysteriously disappeared into the ethers.

AMD had a successful but rather laid back approach to the whole year. Their Athlon 64/Opteron chips made some major inroads into numerous markets traditionally dominated by Intel, they also scored major points by forcing Intel to adopt their AMD64 extensions, but didn’t really consolidate the momentum that they had garnered probably due to the unfortunate fact Microsoft failed to deliver XP/2003 64 bit O.S that would have helped them cement their advantage of bringing X86-64 to the market first. Instead by the time the O.S arrives in Q2 2005, Intel will have multiple 64 bit capable chips on board to combat the possible exodus . Their transition to .09 Micron has apparently been the smoothest of all, although actual product is in very short supply, so perhaps the reported smoothness of the transition
was more smoke and mirrors than actuality.

The big news that bubbled to the surface later in the year was the transition to Dual Core Chips that was being fast tracked by all of the majors. I covered that emerging landscape extensively in June / September 2004. Just to recap.

 

As it became increasingly obvious that the megahertz madness of recent times had reached a dead end, all of the chip giants had to find another way to continue ramping future CPU performance, without relying on faster clock speeds. There are many of ways of improving performance of central processing units including larger Caches, FSB, adding media/vector processing extensions such as Altivec and SSE, branch and memory pre-fetch, out of order execution mechanisms, etc. All of these techniques have proven to be of great value in improving performance, but they have always been coupled with increased clock frequencies to deliver the end results. Another way of improving performance is to enable the execution of multiple threads at the same time. Intel’s first implementation was Hyperthreading, which virtually splits the CPU into 2 cores. Although not as powerful as true Multi processor systems, it did prove an advantage in CPU intensive applications, and hinted at what was to come. The next logical step is to implement dual CPU cores on a single die

The Dual Core War is hotting definitely hotting up with Intel fast tracking their Smithfield Dual Core chip from Q3 to Q2, AMD now under extreme pressure to push the release of their Toledo Dual Core Chip forward, and Apple to……, hmmmm, actually come to think of it, apart from the initial information I managed to scrape up last year, these guys have basically gone into hiding on this one. With the hysteria surrounding the Ipods, Mini Macs, etc, I suppose the incentive to try and compete on the Dual Core battle ground is not really high.

Then again they just may surprise us all with one of those typical unexpected announcements they are renowned for. :-)

The move to 64 bit, as I reported almost a year ago is trudging along as I expected. It will definitely pick up momentum over the next 6 months with not only the release of the 500 and 600 Series EM64T capable PIV’s, but also the long awaited XP / 2003-64, and OSX Tiger for our Mac friends. The next hurdle will be the necessary 64 bit Drivers and of course full 64 bit Applications. Some of the Pro Audio Apps are already offering 64 Bit memory capabilities – i.e. SX 3.0/Nuendo 3.0, while Sonar has just announced a Full 64 Bit capable version of Sonar 4.0, in Beta – of course. I’ll give it another year before things start to gel, which is basically what I predicted back in Feb 2004... Call me Nostril Damas... LOL.

O.K, that’s it for this one, I’ll be back more regularly this year to keep you up to date with the ongoing circus.

Until then.

Peace :-)




© TECHNOLOGY BYTES 2005

Get a cool web address! Free SubDomains from ShortURL.com